Season overview
Was it the season from the team Trek-Segafredo or from Pedersen? He was responsible for half of Trek's victories, with nine wins out of a total of 19 (including the National Champs victories). Of these, as many as five were at WorldTour-level. The team's only other WorldTour-level victory was Ciccone's in stage 15 in the Giro d'Italia. So I believe it’s fair to say Trek was very dependent on Pedersen.
Apart from Pedersen, Moschetti was responsible for two sprint wins. At the end of the season, Skjelmose finally got what he deserved: a stage in the Skoda Tour Luxembourg and the overall classification.
Furthermore, Trek-Segafredo rode a very attacking season. I would especially like to highlight Quinn Simmons who rode no less than 1703 km in the attack this season. That puts him in second place of most breakaway kilometres this season, right behind Pierre Rolland. In the Tour de France, he was in the breakaway no less than five times. He also showed his attacking riding style in the Tirreno-Adriatico and Tour de Suisse.
Transfers
Transfers IN
Trek-Segafredo has done some interesting transfers with the arrival of Natnael Tesfatsion, Mathias Vacek and Thibau Nys.
Tesfatsion enters as one of Africa’s biggest talents. He’s not a classics rider like Girmay, but more of a climber. He already showed his talent last year in the Italian hilly races, resulting in a 2nd place in the Giro dell-Appennino and a 4th place in the GP Industria. I think that’s his terrain and Trek needs to send him to the Giro next year, because I’m certain he can win a stage there.
Vacek is a big question for me. When he won that stage in the UAE Tour in the beginning of the year, I thought it was just pure luck. But, at the end of the season he scored a second place at the U23 World Championships and a 6th place in the Veneto Classic. I actually don’t know what kind of a rider he is. I think he’s someone who can climb a short hill quite well and has a decent sprint after that. Don’t know what to expect from him next season.
Nys already rode some races for them as a trainee. Next year, he will ride Nokere Koerse and the Grand Prix de Denain in the classics season and then some one-week races like Tour de Romandie, Tour of Norway, Baloise Belgium Tour and Tour de Wallonie. I think he can surprise in these races. In Tour de Wallonie, he will not be too far from winning a stage with the small climbs and a sprint at the end.
Transfers OUT
Five riders left the team: Gianluca Brambilla, Alexander Kamp, Matteo Moschetti, Simon Pellaud and Jakob Egholm. Trek-Segafredo will certainly miss Kamp. He had a crazy 2022 season with a 5th place in Amstel Gold Race, a 3th place in Bretagne Classic and he won the Danish National Championships. I don't know why Kamp is already going to Tudor at the age of 29 and why Trek just let him go.
Moschetti was still responsible for two sprint wins in 2022 in one-week races, but this was at 2.pro level or below. The team will not miss him and the other guys too much.
Talent
I think Thibau Nys is the biggest talent of Trek-Segafredo right now. The 20-year-old son of cyclo-cross legend Sven Nys says he will continue to combine cyclo-cross and road cycling in the coming years. He also wants to continue riding a more extensive cyclo-cross programme than for example Wout van Aert or Mathieu van der Poel. I hope he will limit cyclocross a bit in the coming years anyway. This could limit his road career on a long-term basis.
Leaders
Pedersen
The big leader of the team. After a fabulous year, he will ride the classics, the Giro, the TDF and maybe the World Championships next year. A bit too much if you ask me. He needs to ensure that he builds a great basis on training camp. I understand why he wants to do both Giro and TDF. If he wins a stage in the Giro, he would complete his list of stage wins in all grand tours.
I hope that he will already be in top form in the classics. He has a great chance to win one of them then. He could take a stage win in the Giro much easier than a classic due to the probable lack of sprinters in the Giro.
His schedule is a bit too much, if you look at the date of the World Championships. It's planned a week after the TDF and on this course he would be one of the favourites. The big question is: what will his form be after a classics campaign and two grand tours? Another possibility is that he abandons the Tour on the second rest day.
Mollema
Good old Bauke Mollema. In 2022 still responsible for some stage top-5's in grand tours and suddenly he also discovered that he's good at time trials. He finally rides a setup which suits him better than anytime in his career. He will probably ride two grand tours again next year and try to get a stage win. One of his big dreams is to ride all 3 grand tours in one season, so maybe that will already be the case for next season.
Skjelmose
One of the biggest talents in the squad, but also already a leader. He won the Tour of Luxembourg against two flying Frenchmen: Vauquelin and Madouas. At the end of the year, he also finished 10th in the World Championships after getting away with the group with Evenepoel. I think he’s a really good puncheur and also a good medium mountain climber, which is shown by his 8th place in the Clásica San Sebastián. Expect big things of this young man in 2023!
Squads
Cobbled classics
Leaders: Pedersen and Stuyven
Domestiques: Simmons, Hoelgaard, Hoole, Kirsch, Theuns and Skujiņš
A damn strong squad, if you ask me. Two very strong leaders with Pedersen and Stuyven, experienced riders with Kirsch, Theuns and Skujiņš and a lot of young talent with Simmons, Hoelgaard and Hoole. I think it's a top 5 squad in the classics.
If I need to point out one domestique, who’s really valuable and yet a bit underrated is Alex Kirsch. His domestique work was incredible in 2022, both in the classics as in the grand tours. You could see him at the front of the peloton many times, working for Pedersen. He also scored a 15th place in Omloop himself.
Simmons again had a lot of bad luck in the classics campaign. He finished 7th in the Strade Bianche and won the KOM jersey in the Tirreno-Adriatico, but after that he got ill. It destroyed his classics, but I’m sure he can do something there. This year in Dwars door Vlaanderen, when Ineos attacked on Berg Ten Houte, he was following them. He could have been in the leading group (and winning group) in that race, but Trek pulled him back because he needed to work for Pedersen. That’s why I see him shine in the classics.
Hoelgaard had a magnificent 2021 season, but in 2022 we didn’t see him very much. Bad luck prevented him from shining this season. The first part of the season he struggled with both covid and flu and that had an effect on his body for the rest of 2022. Don’t sleep on his talent, though! forget his talent however. He finished 8th in the E3 Saxo Bank Classic, 14th in Kuurne – Bruxelles -Kuurne and 19th in the Amstel Gold Race in 2021.
Daan Hoole is the big engine of the team. A very good time trialist who rode his first full classics campaign last year. The most notable result was a 20th place in Le Samyn and I think that’s the races where he can shine: cobbles with as less hills as possible.
Hilly classics
Leaders: Skjelmose, Mollema and Simmons
Domestiques: Baroncini, Tolhoek, Vacek, Hoelgaard, Tesfatsion and Bernard
Simmons will certainly be the leader in Strade Bianche, but I think they also need to start Skjelmose there. He’s good on these punchy climbs. Mollema will probably score a top 10 in both Il Lombardia and Clásica San Sebastián like he always does. Vacek can surprise in the autumn Italian classics after Vuelta. Hopefully Baroncini can take a step forward after his U23 World Championships title in 2021.
Giro d’Italia
Leaders: Pedersen, Mollema and Ciccone?
Domestiques: Stuyven, Tesfatsion, Ghebreigzabhier, Tiberi and Kirsch
All in for stages and Ciccone can try his best on his own for a good GC result.
Pedersen would like to win a stage here and I think that’s very possible. He said that he’s going to get number 13 tattooed on his body if he wins stage 13 in the Giro after winning stage 13 in both the Tour and the Vuelta. But, I don’t think Pedersen has already looked at the profile of that stage 😉.
Mollema goes to Italy as a stage hunter in the mountains and I hope they give Tesfatsion freedom to also go for a stage himself. Tiberi probably also goes for a stage in his nation’s Grand Tour.
Ciccone still thinks he can top 5 a grand tour if he does not encounter anything, but I don’t think it’s possible. Especially with the course of the Giro and all the other GC guys he’s facing, it’s going to be difficult. Steven de Jongh also said that “You cannot take that ambition away from him, although he will always have to ride a grand tour with the idea of also going for stages.”
Tour de France
Leaders: Skjelmose, López, Mollema and Pedersen
Domestiques: Stuyven, Simmons, Kirsch and Hoelgaard
Trek will give Skjelmose and López the leadership in the Tour de France to go for a good GC result. I think it’s actually a great course for both of them, but I don’t know if they can get that high in GC. A top 10 would be nice. Skjelmose will surely like the first stages in the Basque Country.
Mollema and Pedersen will again try to win a stage.
Vuelta a España
Leader: López
Domestiques: Tolhoek, Aberasturi, Eddy Theuns
I don’t exactly know who they will send to the last grand tour of the season. López is rumoured to go and Tolhoek said in an interview that he will be going. López will probably try to give his best GC-wise, but I don’t think he will be that good after already riding the TDF. Otherwise, Trek will try to win stages again.
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